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Are transfers the last resort?

Listening to Phil Thompson on Sky, giving forth on what he perceived as Liverpools squad difficulties this weekend reminded me of a report I`d read earlier, culled from an investment bank`s prospectus obtained by The Independent. The essence of Thompson`s view was that outside of 12 or 13 players the 'pool squad had very little depth. The investment bankers report designed to attract potential investors to Liverpool FC, sets out the financial framework of the club for the next 5 years. The report confines the net annual budget each year on players` wages and registration fees to £20m. This includes wage increases for contract renewals. Reportedly a good part of the £20m this summer was used to extend the contracts of some players.

In trying to square record profits with transfer spending Arsenal Holdings financial review published on Monday last makes reference to the increasing costs of renewing contracts for current players revealing at £122m a net increase of £20m for the year in expenditure on wages and player registrations. Though it isn`t entirely clear how the player registrations are amortised if we take out the estimated fees for Ramsey, Nasri, Silvestre and Arshavin in the last financial year it suggests the club spent at least £6m or so just to renew existing player contracts.

There continues to be significant upward pressure on players` wage expectations and the activities of other clubs in the market and the introduction of the 50% income tax rate from April 2010 mean this looks set to continue. The Board remains firmly committed to backing Arsčne Wenger`s judgement in determining the composition of the playing squad and the level of contract terms required to secure the long‐term commitment of both new and existing players. Arsenal Holdings PLC Financial Review Sept 09

Cast your mind back to summer 2008 and Wenger was agonising over the inflationary impact of new FIFA rules governing player contracts which he felt means that effectively you only have a player for 2 years.

"After two years, you have to renegotiate your contract, because after three years, the player can move out," he said at the time. "You give longer contracts because it offers a little bit of protection for the player to have to pay compensation if he moves after three years - if you give a player a five-year contract and he moves after three, he has to pay two years (wages).

"But after two years, you have to renegotiate with the player because he can move the next season; you have no choice. You can never get him to sign an extension to his contract for less - that means you will always have to increase his salary. They have created a situation where inflation goes through the roof."

In a transfer market where a club can feel compelled to spend big money on player transfers this can leave a problem unless you can make a profit, or at least recover the investment in player registrations. But the bigger the salary of the player for sale the smaller the fee any buying club will be prepared to pay. The more spent on transfers the less you have to spend on renewing key player contracts which is at least every 2 years. Let the player get to his 3 year (or 2 if 28 and over) protected period and you risk losing him for less than you might expect. This means that your key players can end up making it much harder to maintain quality throughout the squad. An average Premier League squad size will be around 26 -28 players. Pretty well all of those can be used in a season but if you only have a budget able to sustain transfer fees and contract renewals for a dozen or so players the quality of the backup can decline.

Thompson`s view on Liverpools squad is just opinion but if you look at the squads of all the big clubs you can justifiably make the claim that the quality doesn`t really go that deep anywhere but just maybe Arsenal`s squad shows more extended quality than a number of others. Depending on your partisanship you can argue this forever and a day but at least it is possible to see the intent in the Arsenal squad.

Forgetting the sugar daddy syndrome which has always been around, even back beyond the time when Jack Walker bought a title for Blackburn, but which equally inevitably must obey the rules of economics at some point, you can perhaps appreciate Gazidis` view that, what he has described as a 'particularly irrational` transfer market, is an inefficient one on which to rely on building good squad depth. Speaking at last month`s International Football Arena in Zurich, the Arsenal CEO said: "We believe transfer spending is the last resort. That's a sensible view to have. Re-signing existing players is a far more efficient system." The message seeming to be that player retention should be a greater budgetary priority than player acquisition.

Wenger`s view a year ago was that the new player contract rules which FIFA had only recently introduced could eventually become the subject of a challenge on age discrimination grounds as those agreeing a contract over the age of 28 are allowed a 2 year protected period.

"At the moment, after 28 you need only two years. I see the next thing coming is people saying, 'Why is it 28 and not 27? That's age discrimination. Why do we have to wait two years after 28 and three years before?` If it goes down to two as well, you go from one extreme to the other. It could mean the disappearance of transfer fees."

At a time when Real increased their indebtedness by a substantial nine figure sum to acquire Kaka and Ronaldo it is hard to imagine that that day will ever be seen. Maybe the reality of new player contract laws, and where they might ultimately lead, is only just being appreciated in football boardrooms as the longer term consequences are now being realised. What you can afford to pay your players as a squad is becoming more important than what you can pay for individual player transfers. If so it`s not so hard to see that how you put your squad together, and how you keep them together, is going to be a factor in how long and how successfully you can continue to compete in the future.

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The Journalist

Writer: Amos Mail feedback, articles or suggestions

Date:Tuesday October 6 2009

Time: 8:04AM

Your Comments (oldest first)

Change to most recent first
I think the contract extensions we've made in the last year have been more significant than a lot of Arsenal fans appreciate. It also as cost a lot more (extra signing incentives) than people realise too! With respect to squad strength in depth, I think we are a lot better of than people give us credit for. I think Liverpool's squad, for instance, are very shallow (not to mention their heavy reliance on the obvious two). Arguably the team with the most strength in depth is Man City.
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06/10/2009 09:07:00

That's one sexy report!
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06/10/2009 09:55:00

ND - I believe we have the best strength in depth in the PL nowadays. Liverpool's is none-existent, Chelsea have good players, but the other day against Liverpool they only had two players under the age of 28, with their transfer embargo (if it still stands) will leave them very short. Man Utd's depth isn't that great either. Where as we have players like Walcott, Bendtner, Nasri, Djourou, Wilshere, Ramsey, Vela, Gibbs, Eboue, Fabianski all waiting and fighting for places. These players would get into most PL teams, never mind having them on the bench.
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06/10/2009 10:03:00

That's so true, yet we always still seem to hear that we have Arsenal have "no depth".
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06/10/2009 10:09:00

On Sunday we had the old "if everyone was fit, what would our starting 11 be" debate. Obviously everyone being fit is a massive IF, but look at some of the players you end up leaving out and its unbelieveable! Even if you include your subs. The futures bright!
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06/10/2009 12:13:00

I have been saying that all summer Rocky. Just compare our squads - we have more depth than anyone. Maybe we do lack that know how, character or whatever, but when discussing individual players and the amount we have for each position, we are as good as anybody.
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06/10/2009 12:17:00

I am still worried about our goalkeeper cover, and also who is gonna step in for Vermaelen / Gallas. Apart from that, we are in a nice position regarding the quality of squad, and particularly their ages.
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06/10/2009 12:32:00

I would disagree that ManU's depth isnt great, coz their squad performs every season, while the Arsenal squad, which looks better on paper hasnt delivered anything on a consistent basis. This article makes a good point, something that Wenger has raised long back (predictably, he's the only manager who makes such far-reaching predictions, before anyone else has really caught on). The rules of football will continuously change and it will soon come to a stage where planning for the long term will matter less and less, as the rules will keep changing every 2-3 years, regarding player contracts. Wenger raises a valid point - why 28? Why not 27? And it will only require one player to take this to CAS or some other tribunal to get a 'game changing' ruling. It will be interesting to see how this pans out.
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06/10/2009 14:07:00

These new rule will possibly cause the death of Wenger style management and a 'play the arsenal way' philosophy, and instead the Muriniho style Mercenary managment will become the norm, someone who can organize 11 players who barely know each other but grind out results while seeing 5 or 6 starting 11 changes each year
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06/10/2009 15:12:00

I sincerely hope that doesn't happen, bootoo, it would be the death of football. Prits: "predictably, he's the only manager who makes such far-reaching predictions, before anyone else has really caught on" -- exactly, just another example that while we're all going on about transfers and depth (I'm just as guilty as a lot of gooners), AW's thinking about other issues that we're ignoring or giving short shrift to. And the media didn't really pick up on his comments. Since the sales of Ade and Kolo the blogs have been full of bile from gooners about this 40m "free money" in Arsene's hands but he's got other financial demands to worry about that so many fans are not accounting for. It's just not that simple as having 40m to go out and spend. Excellent article, Amos!
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06/10/2009 17:41:00

Sorry, we may have 'more' depth, as in more players of talent, but we do not have the same calibre of depth as United. Sure, John O'Shea, Wes Brown and gary Neville aren't gonna do tricks like Vela, but they're proven winners. We've got depth, granted, but very, very inexperienced depth, and next to know depth in two of the most important positions on the field, centre-half and defensive midfield. Long term injuries to either of our first CB pairing or now to Song with Denilson out and we will be seriously exposed. On the other hand, we do have the best offensive depth in the league, by some margin I would say, but, in my opinion, that depth is less likely to make the difference between winning a championship or not than depth in the key defensive positions.
Ozi Gooner
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07/10/2009 00:35:00

lol, *next to no depth
Ozi Gooner
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07/10/2009 00:36:00

Our centre back options aren't as weak as some might suggest. Djourou is out for the season but Song, Senderos and Silvestre may not be to everyones taste (though Silvestre is just as much a proven winner as Neville) but they are pretty decent backup. Of course you want your first choice pairing available 80% of the time (look how much Vidic struggles without Ferdinand) but that was the case even in the unbeaten season when Cygan was the only back up to Campbell and Toure as the ageing Keown was rarely used. Outside of Denilson and Song options playing in front of the back four aren't great and that is perhaps the greatest weakness. But Nasri has been considered there and could do a job as could Eboue. Diaby has to improve but does a better job than many will accept. But if our need is great enough the January window beckons and the option of last resort is there.
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07/10/2009 00:53:00

I don't think Diaby is shocking Amos, well, as a geneal statement I do, but he's been better than some will give him creidt for against Olympiakos and Blackburn. Song, although the preferrable choice of our spare CB options, means playing without him in the centre, a job he's done well so far and I would not like to think of what would happen were he forced to play as a deputising CB while Denilson is still absent leaving us with Diaby and Ramsey as a midfield defensive pairing - shudder at the thought.
Ozi Gooner
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07/10/2009 01:19:00

If you score 3-4 goals per game, depth at the back becomes less important. And I'd say Senderos and Silvestre are every bit as good as Brown and O'Shea. ManU has two strikers, we have more than Man City. Experience is important, but less so if the experienced players aren't good enough. Scholes is a waste of space on the bench, Brown and Neville are too old and too often crocked to contribute much, and Carrick is the first player to do the reverse-Tottenham: most good players go to the Spuds and become crap, Carrick is the first good player to leave Spuds and become crap. The key to being a defensive midfielder is the ability to cover a lot of ground- talent is an asset (remember Flamini?) So I look at our bench- mostly young, all supremely talented. I look at our rival's benches- mostly experienced, mostly garbage.
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07/10/2009 04:29:00

Well, the results speak for themselves, elbondo. With a bench of Scholes, O Shea, Brown and Neville, MaU won the title last season. Our bench could not handle a few injuries. As for Diaby, I actually think I spot improvements (however marginal) with each passing game. He still gives away the ball too easily, and dawdles on it for far too long, but he does not have the luxury of too much time. He just needs to do the simple things right, for him to be more appreciated.
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07/10/2009 17:54:00

That was last year prits- this year, our lads have a year more experience, while theirs are just a year older and slower. Scholes and Neville in particular will never matter again.
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07/10/2009 18:41:00

Diaby shouldn't be in the team. I don't spot improvments, losing the ball and dawdling on it for too long are his downfalls and they are still there. With Den out he's had a strong run of games to show himself and i don't think he deserves a place in the starting 11 because i think he has been our "weak spot" so far. How many times does he have to ***** up before he gets dropped? Because fankly i am sick of seeing it and everytime he is the only person on our current squad that when i see him on the ball it makes me nervous and i wish he'd just pass to someone else. Although i still get that feeling a little from Bedtner but not as much anymore, Abou has had his chance. Maybe try Ramsey in that posistion? I dunno, i just think he's fkd up way too many times and i don't see him going anywhere. People like to say i'm being too critical of him, but i have so little confidence in him and i really don't like it. I hope he proves me wrong, but there's quality young players on the bench just itching for a chance to show what they're made of and i reckon most of them could do a better job.
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08/10/2009 08:50:00

He is clearly our weak spot in midfield, and whilst he is not as bad as some suggest, the guy plays more games than he should do for Arsenal Football Club - when when we have Denilson/Nasri fit he gets his fair whack.
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08/10/2009 09:30:00

I'm definately looking forward to Nasri's return. Although he dropped form in a few games towards the end of the season i reckon that kid's gonna shine.
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08/10/2009 09:47:00

Excellent article Amos, gives us a much better understanding of why AW is reluctant to spend money on transfer fees. Man U have much better backup in the CB positions than us. Evans and Brown are both excellent players (Brown was fantastic in the 2008 CL semi-final aganist Barca). When they get Hargreaves back they will have better options in the DM position also. I rate Carrick very highly, he's an excllent passer and has great stamina. We do have an abundance of attacking players but I agree with Ozi, the balance of our squad is not quite right. However it's not far off and could be easily rectified with a couple of signings.
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10/10/2009 17:04:00


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