Does Arsene Wenger Know What He's Doing?

If we go by the primary assumption that barring rare exceptions, the financial resources of a football club and wages in particular are highly correlated to its league position, AW has punched at or above his weight. Swiss Rambler has pointed out how over the last 3 years - 4 years property development and player trading has kept Arsenal in profit. The football business on a standalone basis was a loss making venture despite the high ticket prices. The Emirates deal and a future kit deal are game changers in that respect because it would make resources available to AW without him needing to balance his transfer budget through player sales. Over the next 18 months (the duration of AW's current contract) there could be changes in how we approach the transfer market and then one can take a final call on his tenure.

Of course, Wenger knows what he is doing and the fans who question his judgement just aren't being fair and have to get more perspective. The club getting him to stay on was great; the thing that doesn't fail to amaze me is how Wenger remains stoical, even in the face of pressure, taking all the flak for the board and refusing to shirk responsibility for the failure to "buy players" that can win things for the club when the board tells us he has control of the budget. Most Managers would let on all wasn't well and turn the fans against the board. Not Wenger. Amos has expressed the concern that the man may look for change at the expiration of his contract, should things carry on like this; that will be like 'building the home only for someone else to come live in it'. Wenger has done the hard work and so long as the board support him, he should look to "buy" himself some time by winning something this season so as to be in charge when the good times roll in; and I don't see why that can't be as soon as next season, contrary to Amos' projection of 2-3 years.

First step will be to identify the targets we need to plug the areas of weaknesses. Next step will be to be rid of the average players in the squad, even at a financial 'Loss' to the club (we should have the resources to afford that). The likes of Chamakh, Bendtner, Squillaci, Arshavin and even Djourou had received interests in the recent past. Let us cut deals to be rid of them (I name Djourou and Arshavin with regret) and look to pay the performing players wages commensurate with their output. Then go for the targets; 2 or 3 players (in the creative and DF roles) who have won things, would be enough to give this team an edge, soon enough.

As we sit here in November already 10 pts off the top with a feather weight squad that look further than ever from challenging, having emerged from yet another summer where two of the best players have been sold, incapable of keeping any squad together for longer than a season, fielding only one natural striker with no striking replacement on a bench that contains only the infirm, the disinterested and the incompetetent, he presides over a squad that a) he is seemingly incapable of consistently motivating or that when all is said and done are b) not good enough to cut the required mustard any longer, neither option is a glowing endorsement and both are unfortunately true. It's a tricky one as the annual purge and ransacking of Wengers' squads are obviously not what he'd willingly choose yet he makes the sacrifice for the financial good of the club and he does still work minor miracles given he has to rip up the manual and start from scratch each year, despite a good few other faults few other managers would work such feats. Whilst this policy is an ongoing one for Arsenal it matters not who is at the helm as you cannot win feck all if you dismantle and asset strip your greatest strengths come the end of each season. Here's hoping this summer was the last but we'll likely start next season without walcott and sagna, that'll be our main challenge now that we've started and maintained this cycle of annual player sale even if we want to stop will we be able to do so?

niko - I guess it depends on the impact of FFP, our own finances and how successful we are.

Naija - yes, I agree that what seems to be winning is real know-how and if we had 2/3 players on the pitch with that we could take the next step. The problem Wenger has is that he has presided over a period where we've become the nearly men and there's almost an inevitability about the outcome we're going to have. Something has to be done to arrest this malaise and a new identity needs to be instilled at the Club. What Wenger did for AFC was amazing, but he's increasingly looking like a guy that isn't capable of turning things around and making us winners. Sadly, unless we make these significant additions, i don't see us winning anything under him. You only have to look at the Chavs and how the senior pros there were the key to their consistency (despite them being t-wats). Sometimes you need the senior pros as well as the manager, but losing not only your best players but those that are most experienced isn't the recipe for success.

Today I was on a course that I attended with the intention of doing my job better, but naturally ended up applying all of the concepts to Arsenal. The three main things it covered were "confirmation bias", "narrative fallacy" and "black swans." It made me think instantly of the coverage and interpretation of Arsenal's last five or six years.

Abramovich spent 10 years and upwards of £700m and won the EPL 3 times. If £700m+ and far more than 2 or 3 players can only bring a 30% success rate the idea that all we need to take the title is 2 or 3 players is just fanciful dreaming. The City and Chav squads will continue to be strong for at least 2 or 3 seasons before any spending constraints even begin to take effect. ManU's finances will continue to be strong. We'll be able to compete on a more level basis in future but only progressively. There's likely to be still more frustration immediately ahead for the present discontents whoever is at the helm.

I'm very much looking forward to your article 'The Effect of Narrative Fallacy and Confirmation Bias on Popular Perceptions of Arsenal Football Club' LD! :)

We've been here before (after last season's game at OT) and Wenger managed to turn it around. So, I do think he knows what he's doing, but he's not doing enough to rectify some of the familiar errors. Sometimes, I think 2 more players will see us challenge more effectively, but when I think that Arsenal make similar mistakes now as a very different squad of 2007 did, then the only common denominator is Wenger (even Rice is now gone). I do hope he can get us to 4th place this season, and we can look at things over the summer.

Sajit, no Manager would want to lose his best players but money talks - Nasri left to triple his salary from 60k to 180k/ week. RvP left to more than double his from 80 k to 200 k/ week and Cesc genuinely wanted to leave for home even if at a pay cut. Considering that 200k/ week salaries are beyond our reach for the moment (it may change in the future) some departures of players were unavoidable. Two departures which were avoidable were that of Clichy and Song, for his own reasons AW didn't seem to rate them highly enough or hold them critical to the team's success which is a very debatable point. So in summary, I disagree with your view that AW puts himself into this position every season out of his own choice.

Agree on the broad principle of what you are saying Joe and its been a common refrain about the club's policy. Hypothetically lets say we pay two top players in the squad 200k/ week - lets assume those were RvP (who was persuaded to stay) and Nasri (persuaded again), what that does is benchmark salaries and when senior new players are signed - Podolski and Cazorla for eg, their agents demand parity with the highest salary at the club. The same thing happened at Chelsea and then City when Lampard and Terry were paid 150 k/ week and Torres, Drogba and Ballack wanted parity with that or when Toure and Tevez were paid 200k/ week and Aguero, Nasri and Kompany wanted parity. If a club can afford to pay those wages they should and Arsenal was not in a position to do so at the time. I am not saying our wage policy does not need revision - it does ofcourse and i'm sure we will see deadwood leave the club soon and leave spaces for new players to come in.

we are the only club that adds the salaries of the reserve team players, the manager, the support staff, coaching staff and everyone in Arsene's team to the players wage bill, no other club does that, which explains why our wage bill is so close to teams at the top..

Joe, you dont need an excuse to have your own opinion or justify them to me :)

My view on wages is that we don't need to match the Tier 1 rates ($ for $, don't have GBP symbool on my Aussie keyboard) but we do need to raise the top and lengthen the whole structure, plus as so many have said, rid us of dead wood (not me! haha). On the subject of Wenger, of course he knows what he is doing. I believe he has achieved very well given constraints but, linked back to the wages point, as Niko said, we can't win if we keep churning players, esp in the case of Fab and RVP two very good players who could win games almost by force of will alone. Caz is Fab's equal technically but not from a dominant personality perspective. Wenger needs to stop the churn. If the new deal allows us to do that starting Jan and continuing in (your) summer) great. If we repeat the churn, I may just move of the fence and be more certain that, when his contract is up, he should go.

DeadwoodGooner (Lol, saw what you did there), Cazorla may be like Cesc, perhaps even better, on the technical side with a better ability to dribble his way out of trouble, he still lacks Cesc's innate eye for the intricate pass. Many times I see our forward men running into positions and just can't help but think Cesc would see those runs and thread a pass through a sea of legs; or loft the ball at just the right weight to do damage. We need such a player in the side. Such passes don't have to be precise all the time but someone has to keep trying them.

Watch the West Ham game again, Santi set up Giroud for a brilliant chance at 2-1 whereby no one saw it in the stadium, it was the pass of an absolute pass master. He is up there with Cesc when it comes to picking out players, don't forget he doesn't have players of the guile of Van Persie to pick out, Giroud, Podolski and Walcott have other strengths. re Wenger, in his interview yesterday he's already pretty much said that it's impossible for anyone to do any better than he is at Arsenal

One season finishing 6th doesn't disprove the rule. There's plenty of other evidence to support the argument. Undeniably so for any serious observer. As for ManU's present squad: Phil Jones £17m, De Gea £19m, Young £17m, Kagawa £12m, Ferdinand £28m, Rooney £27m, Carrick £19m, RvP £24m, Anderson £15m, Nani £13.5m, Smalling £10m.Their net spend hasn't been 'v.low' at all. Even distorted as it is by the Ronaldo deal their net spend since 2003 puts them 4th behind Liverpool but naturally someway behind Chelsea and City. It isn't just a matter of how much you can spend on transfers in one season though. It's the size of your player budgets (wages plus transfers), and how consistently you can sustain the level of spending, that (for the most part) determines the quality of your squad and competitive capability.

*departures* . Shewore, I hear you. I just think he has to be spraying those passes as often as the front men give him the opportunity. Alex Song would keep playing those lofted balls, failing a few times, till one of the passes comes off. If the forward men know you are capable of threading those passes, they will instinctively, make those runs. My views anyway and it takes nothing away from Cazorla's influence as a key midfield player for us.

The fact that Rio was bought some time ago just shows that they've been able to spend bigger for longer. You've no real way of knowing what wages any of the ManU players are on or whether they're small or not relative to the average pay for players in the PL. What you can say is ManU's total wage bill is the 3rd highest in the league and that their player budget (wages plus transfer spend) is also the 3rd highest by some distance. The fact that their revenues are also significantly higher than others doesn't remove the obvious conclusion that it's their financial power, their money, that is a defining factor in their ability to acquire and retain a competitive squad.